⚠️ Wave Correction: $5,595 is Wave Ⅴ-③ Top, Not $4,773

⚠️ Wave Structure Correction

> Due to incomplete data, my earlier analysis incorrectly marked the wave Ⅴ peak at $4,773 on May 11, 2026. Full historical K-line data reveals a more complex structure.

Corrected Internal Structure of Wave Ⅴ

``` 2024.10 → 2026.05: Wave Ⅴ (extension within extension) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Ⅴ-①: $2,786 → $4,09x (first impulse) └── De-dollarization + central bank buying

Ⅴ-②: $4,09x → $3,8xx (shallow correction)

Ⅴ-③: $3,8xx → ⭐ $5,595.32 (⚠️ different from prior analysis) └── Internal sub-3 extension: ├ ③-①: $4,3xx → $4,6xx (early Jan) ├ ③-②: shallow retracement ├ ③-③: 🌟 $4,600 → $5,595 🏆 ← Super extension! ├ ③-④: intra-week pullback to $4,682 └ ③-⑤: closed at $4,891

📅 Date: Week of Jan 18~25, 2026 📊 Weekly range: $4,682 → $5,595 → close $4,891 (+$913!) 💥 Strongest single week of the entire 2021-2026 bull market

Ⅴ-④: $5,595 → $4,402 (week of Feb 1, 2026) └── Severe -21.3% retracement, but did not enter Ⅴ-② territory ✅ └── Low of $4,402 on Feb 1 week confirms wave ④ compliance

Ⅴ-⑤: $4,402 → $5,419 → $4,477 → $4,097 → $4,800 → $4,765 └── Feb→May 2026, classic Ending Diagonal ├── 2/22 week H:$5,281 ├── 3/01 week H:$5,419 ⚠️ sub-high (failed $5,595) ├── 3/08 week H:$5,238 ├── 3/15 week L:$4,477 ├── 3/22 week L:$4,098 ⚠️ entered ③-wave territory (diagonal feature) ├── 4/12 week H:$4,889 (wave(b) of ⑤) └── 5/03 week H:$4,764 ⭐ wave termination ✅ ```

Key Differences: Corrected vs Original

| Item | Original (wrong) | Corrected (right) | Impact | |:-----|:-----------------|:------------------|:-------| | Wave Ⅴ peak | $4,773 (May 11) | $5,595 (Jan 25) | Deeper C-wave targets | | Wave ⑤ shape | Simple impulse | **Ending Diagonal** | Stronger wave Ⅴ termination | | A-wave start | $4,773 | $4,765 | Nearly identical | | A-wave magnitude | -17.1% | -17.0% | Almost same | | C-wave target (A equal) | $3,143 | $3,143 | Unchanged | | C-wave target (A*0.618) | $3,454 | $3,454 | Unchanged | | **Additional C target (from $5,595)** | — | **$3,000~$3,300** | ⚠️ Deeper extreme |

Extreme C-Wave Targets (Full Wave Ⅴ Basis)

``` From the $5,595 peak complete correction: Wave A: $5,595→$3,958 = -29.2% (a) └── If C = A → $4,088-$1,637 = $2,451 ❌ Too extreme

More reasonable correction targets (Fibonacci of total Ⅴ rise): Ⅴ rise: $5,595 - $1,615(Ⅲ end) = $3,980 38.2% retrace: $5,595 - $3,980×0.382 = $4,075 ← ⚠️ Already touched! 50% retrace: $5,595 - $3,980×0.5 = $3,605 61.8% retrace: $5,595 - $3,980×0.618 = $3,135 ← wave Ⅳ zone

Correction-based C-wave targets: 🔴 Conservative (A equal from $4,765): $3,500~$3,665 ✅ Unchanged 🔴 Medium (Ⅴ wave 50% retrace): $3,605 ✅ 🔴 Extreme (Ⅴ wave 61.8% retrace): $3,135

⚠️ Important: The higher B-wave bounces, the deeper C-wave targets! ```

Current B-Wave Rebound Analysis Unchanged

A-wave start shifted from $4,773 to $4,765 (difference <0.2%), so the B-wave analysis remains valid: - B-wave rebound zone: $3,958→$4,096~$4,220 (38.2% Fib) - C-wave confirmation: H1 Alligator eating-up → sleeping/eating-down - Key resistance: $4,096 / $4,220 / $4,269

Lesson Learned

This correction reminds us: **wave analysis must be based on complete K-line data**. This database carries W1 data from November 2022 onwards. D1 data has high duplication rates, affecting previous peak identification. Data source fixes are pending.

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> *This analysis is recalibrated from the most complete W1 (183 weeks) and D1 data in the database. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.*