XAUUSD Weekly Outlook - May 18-23, 2026

Market Overview

XAUUSD closed the week at **,539.78**, with Friday's -2.42% drop marking the largest single-day decline in a month.

Elliott Wave Framework (D1)

| Wave | Range | Move | |------|-------|------| | Wave A | 5,403 → 4,098 | -1,305 | | Wave B | 4,098 → 4,889 | +791 (60.6% retrace) | | Wave C | 4,889 → current | In progress |

Wave C has not yet reached equality with Wave A (target ,584). Currently in C-5 subwave.

D1 Alligator

Current: Lips(G) ,692 > Teeth(R) ,667 > Jaw(B) ,677

**Status: Tangled** — Price has broken below all three lines but the lines are still crossed. Alligator not yet fully bearish.

D1 Fractals - Last up fractal: May 12 @ ,774 - Last down fractal: May 12 @ ,638 - Price below last down fractal: bearish structure intact

H4: Awakening Bearish Price trading below the Alligator's green line. Bearish divergence building.

H1: Completed 5-Wave Decline (May 12 → 15)

` (1) 4,773 → 4,637 (2) 4,637 → 4,727 (3) 4,727 → 4,675 (4) 4,675 → 4,712 (5) 4,712 → 4,511 ← volume spike `

Wave (5) found buying support at ,511, weekly close at ,540.

Fibonacci Key Levels (4774 → 4511)

| Level | Price | Note | |-------|-------|------| | 0.236 | ,573 | First resistance | | 0.382 | ,612 | Weak bounce target | | 0.500 | ,643 | Bounce confirmation | | 0.618 | ,673 | Alligator green line | | 0.786 | ,718 | Major resistance |

Next Week Projection

| Level | Price | Confidence | |-------|-------|------------| | 🟢 High | ,650 ~ ,720 | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 🔴 Low | ,450 ~ ,500 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | ⚪ Pivot | ,540 ~ ,573 | — |

Scenarios

**Scenario A (Bullish, 40%):** Hold above ,573 → target ,643 ~ ,673 - Requires H1 fractal breakout above ,564

**Scenario B (Bearish, 45%):** Fail at ,540 → test ,500 ~ ,511 - Break below ,500 extends Wave C to ,400 ~ ,450

**Scenario C (Range, 15%):** ,511 ~ ,573 consolidation

Risk Disclaimer

Risk: Medium. Based on Bill Williams Chaos Theory (Alligator, Fractals, AO) and Elliott Wave Theory. Alligator still tangled — major trend not confirmed. Educational purposes only.