2026-06-10 XAUUSD London AI Forecast

Market Overview

XAUUSD currently at **$4221.02** (as of 2026-06-10 08:00:00)

Overnight session saw continued aggressive selling, breaking through the 4350-4370 key support zone. Bearish momentum remains unabated as the market enters a discovery phase below multi-month support levels.

Multi-Timeframe Technicals

D1 Alligator 空头运行, AO -177.42 (bearish momentum still accelerating)

H4 Alligator 空头运行, AO -117.40

H1 Alligator 空头运行, AO -68.28

Elliott Wave Analysis

Larger Timeframe (Daily) Structure

Currently in **Wave 4 (or B wave)** retracement phase.

Wave structure review: - **Wave 1**: 2024 lows to 2025 all-time high 5595 (Wave 3 peak) - **Wave 2**: Q1 2025 correction (flat pattern) - **Wave 3**: Q2-Q4 2025 impulse (extended) - **Wave 4** (current): Large-scale correction ongoing in 2026

Intermediate (H4) Sub-wave Decomposition

The ABC corrective structure within Wave 4:

• **Wave A**: 5595 → 4736 (completed)
• **Wave B**: 4736 → 5419 (completed)
• **Wave C**: 5419 → present (in progress)

Wave C can be further subdivided into 5 sub-waves: - **C-1**: 5419 → 4920 - **C-2**: 4920 → 5150 - **C-3**: 5150 → 4350→ (extending, currently running) - **C-4**: yet to form - **C-5**: yet to form

Current Position

**We are in C-3**, the most explosive sub-wave of the C leg.

Key price action confirmation: - Acceleration began around 2026-05-06 - 4350 previous low broken → now acting as strong resistance - Weekly consecutive large bear candles - Significantly elevated volatility

C-3 Wave Target Zones

C-3 typically extends to 1.618× of C-1:

``` C-1 length = 5419 − 4920 = 499 C-3 minimum = 5150 − 499 × 1.0 = 4651 ✓ (reached) C-3 1.618 ext = 5150 − 499 × 1.618 = 4343 ✓ (reached) C-3 2.618 ext = 5150 − 499 × 2.618 = **3844** (extreme) ```

Current price **4221.02** sits within the 1.618-2.618 extension zone.

Key Question: Is C-3 Ending?

**Scenario 1 (Bearish)**: C-3 extending further - If price fails to hold above 4350, bears target 4050-4100 (S3/S2 zone) - Potential endpoint near 4000 (C = 1.618× A) - Verdict: **Bearish continuation**

**Scenario 2 (Reversal)**: C-3 near exhaustion - If daily long lower wick + H1 AO divergence appear - C-4 bounce to 4350-4500 zone may trigger - Verdict: **Potential bottom forming**

Current Assessment

C-3 is still extending; **bottom not yet confirmed**. Daily AO continues downward with no divergence signals on H1 or H4. Priority remains bearish.

Signal Summary

Bullish Signals

None at this time

Bearish Signals

• H4鳄鱼线空头进食
• H1鳄鱼线空头进食
• D1 AO处于空头区域
• H4 AO处于空头区域
• H1 AO处于空头区域

Support & Resistance

| Level | Support | Resistance | |-------|---------|------------| | S1/R1 | 4357.27 | 4686.05 | | S2/R2 | 4210.2 | 4742.26 | | S3/R3 | 4017.7 | 4833.11 |

Execution Notes

• **Trend continuation**: Below 4350, bounces to 4235-4255 are potential short entries
• **Bottom confirmation**: Wait for H4/H1 AO divergence + daily long lower wick
• **C-4 bounce**: If reversal candle appears, watch 4350-4450 as resistance zone
• **Ultimate support**: S3 at 4017 — if tested, expect massive liquidity vacuum
• Watch upcoming CPI data impact on rate cut expectations
• DXY strength continues to pressure XAUUSD

Risk Disclaimer

Risk level **High**. C-3 wave extension phase comes with elevated volatility and significant risk in both directions. This analysis is based on Bill Williams Chaos Theory (Alligator, Fractals, AO) and Elliott Wave Theory for educational purposes only.